An analysis of clinical trials registered between October 2005 and September 2007 has been published by Nature[1]. The conclusion is clear: Most registered trials were in oncology, followed by central nervous system (CNS) disorders and cardiology. This could indicate the future for marketed products within the three therapeutic fields.
Oncology is the largest therapeutics area with more early phase trials than any other area. The market for anticancer drugs[2] is the second largest therapy market, with US$34.6 billion in global sales in 2006 – only exceeded by lipid regulators[3].
The position as a follower is occupied by CNS – most depression and schizophrenia trials are being conducted. However both indications have experienced a negative growth, with moderately few early phase trials. This could indicate a shift in CNS-focus by the Pharma and Biotech companies, maybe due to the lack of success in psychiatric diseases compared to other areas – sleep disorders, multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer’s etc.
Cardiology is the third biggest therapeutic area with targets like hypertension, cardiovascular diseases etc. Both indications showed a decrease in trials and why the industry has paid less attention to cardiology development is not clear. One explanation could be the intensive competition from strong market leaders, many of which soon will become generics.
To sum it up: the future competitive environment within oncology is increasing based on the number of clinical trials registered. A too crowded market with strong market leaders could make it financially risky to develop a new oncology drug. Nevertheless, many indications are still untreated or with a limited number of competitors and before this has changed I cannot picture a decrease in registered oncology trials.
[1] www.nature.com/reviews/drugsdisc
[2] Drugs like Gleevec, Taxotere, Leustatin, Gemzar etc.
[3] Drugs like Lipitor, Zocor etc.
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